Top 5 Most Likely Ordered Menu Items — Scenario Dashboard
Q2 2023 Forecast & Metro Manila (NCR) Consumption Growth Scenarios | Based on Q1 2023 order data (12,218 records)
Date: 8 August 2026
Top 5: Q2 2023 Forecast
Scenario Comparison
Top 5 Most Likely Ordered Items: April to June 2023
Linear trend extrapolation from Q1 2023 actuals (January–March). Ranked by total forecast order volume across Q2 2023. Data corrected: French Fries Q2 = 635; Mac & Cheese monthly figures corrected (Jan 138, Feb 154) per source data.
Q2 2023 Forecast by Item
Rank
Item
Category
Q1 Total
Trend Slope
Apr
May
Jun
Q2 Total
Q1→Q2 Growth
Q2 2023 Forecast — Monthly Order Volume
French Fries vs Mac & Cheese: Both share a near-identical Q2 forecast (635 vs 634 units). French Fries holds 3rd on a higher April forecast (205 vs 193). Mac & Cheese carries the steepest positive trend slope (+18.5 units/month) and is projected to surpass French Fries in June (230 vs 218 units).
Edamame note: Edamame was the 2nd most-ordered item in Q1 (625 units) but is excluded from the Top 5. Its declining trend (−26.5 units/month) puts its Q2 forecast at 386 units (rank 13).
Mac & Cheese correction: Monthly Q1 figures corrected from v3 report (Jan 147, Feb 145 → Jan 138, Feb 154 per source data). Q1 total of 467 unchanged.
Rolling 2-Week Forecast — April to June 2023 (Q2 Base)
April: Rank order is identical across both windows. Higher unit counts in Window 2 reflect the longer 16-day window (vs 14 days in Window 1), consistent with the proportional allocation formula.
Window 1: 1–14 May (14 days) | Window 2: 15–31 May (17 days)
May Window 1 — 1 to 14 May (14 days)
Rank
Item
Category
Forecast Units
May Window 2 — 15 to 31 May (17 days)
Rank
Item
Category
Forecast Units
May — Window 1 vs Window 2
May: Mac & Cheese overtakes Tofu Pad Thai for 4th position from May onward, driven by its steeper trend slope. French Fries and Mac & Cheese are effectively tied in Window 2 (116 vs 116). French Fries retains 3rd rank on its higher April forecast.
Window 1: 1–14 Jun (14 days) | Window 2: 15–30 Jun (16 days)
June Window 1 — 1 to 14 June (14 days)
Rank
Item
Category
Forecast Units
June Window 2 — 15 to 30 June (16 days)
Rank
Item
Category
Forecast Units
June — Window 1 vs Window 2
June: Mac & Cheese overtakes French Fries to claim 3rd, consistent with its +18.5 units/month trend slope — the steepest of any Top 5 item. Hamburger and Korean Beef Bowl are tied at 120 units in Window 1; Hamburger retains 1st on higher April and May forecasts.
Scenario Comparison — Metro Manila (NCR) Consumption Growth
Two macro scenarios (Baseline and High Oil) applied to the Q2 2023 base forecast, each with Q3 and Q4 variants. Growth rates are Metro Manila (NCR) household consumption growth projections. Formula: Scenario monthly = ROUND(Q2 base month × (1 + rate), 0).
Q2 Base
3,352
Combined Top 5 units
Growth rate: —
Baseline Q3
3,490
Combined Top 5 units
↑ +138 vs Q2 Base (+4.1%)
Baseline Q4
3,512
Combined Top 5 units
↑ +160 vs Q2 Base (+4.8%)
High Oil Q3
3,459
Combined Top 5 units
↑ +107 vs Q2 Base (+3.2%)
High Oil Q4
3,484
Combined Top 5 units
↑ +132 vs Q2 Base (+4.0%)
Q3 Scenario Spread
31 units
BL Q3 vs HO Q3 (Top 5 total)
≈ 2.2 units / item / week
Q4 Scenario Spread
28 units
BL Q4 vs HO Q4 (Top 5 total)
Limited procurement risk
Top 5 Items — Quarterly Total by Scenario
Scenario spread is narrow: The 31-unit Q3 spread across all 5 items represents approximately 2.2 units per item per week — a marginal difference. From a procurement standpoint, the High Oil Q3 scenario requires only slightly lower stock positioning than the Baseline. Q4 outperforms Q3 under both scenarios: Baseline Q4 adds 22 units above Baseline Q3 (3,512 vs 3,490); High Oil Q4 adds 25 units above High Oil Q3 (3,484 vs 3,459), driven by seasonal remittance inflows and year-end demand patterns. Hamburger leads and retains first rank across all four scenarios.
3.1 Quarterly Totals by Scenario
All figures in units. BL = Baseline; HO = High Oil. Q3 rate applied to April–June base; Q4 is a distinct forward quarter, not a compounding of Q3.
Top 5 Items — Scenario Comparison by Quarterly Total (units)
Rank
Item
Category
Q2 Base
Baseline Q3 (4.1%)
Baseline Q4 (4.8%)
High Oil Q3 (3.2%)
High Oil Q4 (4.0%)
Apr
May
Jun
Total
Apr
May
Jun
Total
Apr
May
Jun
Total
Apr
May
Jun
Total
Apr
May
Jun
Total
3.2 Rolling 2-Week Windows by Scenario
Select scenario below, then browse by month. Window formula: ROUND(scenario monthly × window days ÷ month days, 0). Window 2 consistently exceeds Window 1 by ~15% due to the higher day count in the second half of each month.
Window 1: 1–14 May (14 days) | Window 2: 15–31 May (17 days)
May Window 1 — 1 to 14 May (14 days)
Rank
Item
Category
Forecast Units
May Window 2 — 15 to 31 May (17 days)
Rank
Item
Category
Forecast Units
May — Window 1 vs Window 2
Window 1: 1–14 Jun (14 days) | Window 2: 15–30 Jun (16 days)
June Window 1 — 1 to 14 June (14 days)
Rank
Item
Category
Forecast Units
June Window 2 — 15 to 30 June (16 days)
Rank
Item
Category
Forecast Units
June — Window 1 vs Window 2
Window 2 consistently exceeds Window 1 by ~15% across all items and scenarios — a direct function of day count (Window 2 has 16–17 days vs Window 1's 14). Peak window: Hamburger, Baseline Q3, May Window 2 = 140 units (8.2 units/day). The scenario selector above shows that rolling window differences between Baseline and High Oil are small: typically 2–3 units per item per window.
